Covid-19 Cases Growth and Business Continuity in Indonesia: A Causality Test


  • Silvi Asna Prestianawati Universitas Brawijaya
  • Axellina Muara Setyanti Universitas Brawijaya



Business;, Covid-19;, Granger causality; , Human mobility


The objective of this study is to examine the causality between Covid-19 cases growth and business continuity in Indonesia, thus can be formulated the post-Covid business strategies. The Covid-19 cases are modeled into ‘daily case’ and ‘active case’, while business continuity proxied with human mobility to grocery and pharmacy, also to retail and recreation. Using daily data ranging from March to December 2020, the Granger causality results show that there is a bidirectional causality between daily case and grocery-pharmacy business, whereas interestingly there is a unidirectional relationship from retail-recreation business to daily case. In active case model, author found a unidirectional causality from active case to both grocery-pharmacy and retail-recreation business. This research may be used to improve business strategy in order to maintain the business life during the Covid-19 Pandemic in Indonesia.


Albinsaid, Gamal. (2020). Kebangkitan Low Touch Economy Saat Pandemi Covid-19. Retrieved from
Alves, J. C., Lok, T. C., Luo, Y., & Hao, W. (2020). Crisis management for small business during the COVID-19 outbreak: Survival, resilience and renewal strategies of firms in Macau.
Bansal, P., Grewatsch, S., & Sharma, G. (2021). How COVID‐19 informs business sustainability research: It’s time for a systems perspective. Journal of Management Studies, 58(2), 602–606.
Bartik, A. W., Bertrand, M., Cullen, Z., Glaeser, E. L., Luca, M., & Stanton, C. (2020). The impact of COVID-19 on small business outcomes and expectations. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(30), 17656–17666.
Cagliano, R., Caniato, F. and Spina, G. (2003), E‐business strategy: How companies are shaping their supply chain through the Internet, International Journal of Operations & Production Management, Vol. 23 No. 10, pp. 1142-1162.
Chan, H. F., Skali, A., Savage, D. A., Stadelmann, D., & Torgler, B. (2020). Risk attitudes and human mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic. Scientific reports, 10(1), 1-13.
Charles, S. (2020). COVID-19 Impacts on Accounting, Reporting and Internal Controls. ProtivitiInc publication.Retrieved from,
Cook, J. (2015). A six-stage business continuity and disaster recovery planning cycle. SAM Advanced Management Journal, 80(3), 22-33.
Craven, M., Liu, L., Mysore, M., & Wilson, M. (2020). COVID-19: Implications for business. McKinsey & Company, 1–8.
Cuba, L. (2020). What is the purpose of Sinopec that selling fresh products at gas stations?
Donthu, N., & Gustafsson, A. (2020). Effects of COVID-19 on business and research. Journal of Business Research, 117, 284.
Ernst & Young (2020). COVID-19 business continuity plan: Five ways to reshape. EY, Canada. EY publication. Retrieved from,
Lim, B., & Zohren, S. (2020). Time series forecasting with deep learning: A survey. ArXiv Preprint ArXiv:2004.13408.
Fabeil, N. F., Pazim, K. H., & Langgat, J. (2020). The impact of Covid-19 pandemic crisis on micro-enterprises: Entrepreneurs’ perspective on business continuity and recovery strategy. Journal of Economics and Business, 3(2).
Kantar. (2020). Coronavirus outbreak’s impact on China’s consumption. Retrieved from
Karabag, S. F. (2020). An unprecedented global crisis! the global, regional, national, political, economic and commercial impact of the coronavirus pandemic, Journal of Applied Economics and Business Research,10 (1), 1-6.
Kraemer, M. U., Yang, C. H., Gutierrez, B., Wu, C. H., Klein, B., Pigott, D. M., ... & Scarpino, S. V. (2020). The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China. Science, 368(6490), 493-497.
Lacus, S. M., Santamaria, C., Sermi, F., Spyratos, S., Tarchi, D., & Vespe, M. (2020). Human mobility and COVID-19 initial dynamics. Nonlinear Dynamics, 101(3), 1901-1919.
McNeish, D., & Hamaker, E. L. (2020). A primer on two-level dynamic structural equation models for intensive longitudinal data in Mplus. Psychological Methods, 25(5), 610.
OECD (2020). Coronavirus (COVID-19). SME policy responses. Available at: https://read.
Rieger, M.O., Wang,M. & Hens, T. (2015) Risk preferences around the world. Manag. Sci. 61, 637–648.
Pitaloka, H., Al Umar, A. U. A., Hartati, E. R., & Fitria, D. (2020). The economic impact of the COVID-19 outbreak: Evidence from Indonesia. Jurnal Inovasi Ekonomi, 5(02).
Setiati, S., & Azwar, M. K. (2020). COVID-19 and Indonesia. Acta Medica Indonesiana, 52(1), 84–89.
The Institute of Chartered Accountant of England and Wales-ICAEW (2020). UK practical business advice: COVID-19. Retrieved from,
Tour De Force (TDF Asia). (2020). Why does the Low-Touch Economy Matter in the Luxury Industry?. Retrieved from
Wang, Y., Hong, A., Li, X., & Gao, J. (2020). Marketing innovations during a global crisis: A study of China firms’ response to COVID-19. Journal of Business Research, 116, 214-220.




How to Cite

Prestianawati, S. A., & Setyanti, A. M. (2021). Covid-19 Cases Growth and Business Continuity in Indonesia: A Causality Test. Communicare : Journal of Communication Studies, 8(2), 134–145.